Senior Expert - Climate Change Mitigation Modelling for Tanzania's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS)
Organizational Context
The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) is coordinating the development of Tanzania's Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategy (LT-LEDS). This role supports the Vice-President's Office – Division of Environment (VPO-DoE) in developing quantitative modelling and scenario analysis to inform the strategy, aiming for a climate-resilient, net-zero, and nature-positive economy by 2050.
Job Purpose
This role is to lead the quantitative modelling and scenario analysis for Tanzania's LT-LEDS, translating the country's Long-Term Vision into evidence-based pathways. The purpose is to provide the technical modelling backbone for the LT-LEDS, ensuring it integrates net-zero, nature-positive, resilience, and investment-planning objectives. The expert will collaborate with national institutions and consultants to ensure modelling outputs directly inform policy decisions, support climate finance mobilization, and enhance the credibility of the LT-LEDS as a development and investment framework, ultimately supporting Tanzania's transition towards a sustainable future.
Responsibilities
Develop a calibrated set of long-term low-emission scenarios, including a GHG baseline and BAU scenario, and sector-specific net-zero pathways by 2050. Explicitly address AFOLU carbon sequestration and nature-based solutions, conducting cost-benefit, macro-economic, and just-transition analyses. Assess the implications of alternative pathways for adaptation, biodiversity, and investment, including nature-positive investments and Article 6 carbon market opportunities. Ensure structured capacity transfer to national institutions (NCMC and VPO-DoE) and integrate modelling outputs as annexes into the LT-LEDS document, supporting Tanzania's transition to a net-zero and nature-positive economy.
Work Experience
Minimum 12 years of professional experience in climate change mitigation modelling, long-term low-emission strategy development, or NDC/LT-LEDS preparation, with at least 8 years in integrated, energy-system, or sectoral GHG modelling. Demonstrated experience with modelling platforms (e.g., LEAP, TIMES, GCAM), land-use/AFOLU emissions, and nature-related/macro-economic models. Prior involvement in LT-LEDS or similar national climate strategy development is required. Experience in Sub-Saharan Africa is required.
Skills
Climate change mitigation modelling, long-term low-emission strategy development, GHG baseline and BAU scenario development, sector-specific pathway analysis, AFOLU and nature-based solutions modelling, cost-benefit and macro-economic analysis, just-transition analysis, decision-making-under-uncertainty methods (e.g., RDM), modelling platforms (LEAP, TIMES, GCAM, etc.), nature-related and macro-economic models, capacity building, English fluency.