Individual Consultant: Strategic Foresight and Programme Planning Analyst

Organizational Context

The consultant will integrate strategic foresight analysis, conduct rigorous thematic reviews, leverage past evaluations, and support highly participatory stakeholder consultations to support the design of the programme in these areas Sexual and Reproductive Health and Rights (SRHR), Adolescents and Youth (A&Y), Gender-Based Violence (GBV) and Female Genital Mutilation (FGM), and Population Dynamics and Demographic Intelligence. The consultant will work under the overall guidance of the UNFPA Deputy Representative and direct supervision of the Population Data Specialist, UNFPA is the lead United Nations agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is intended, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. The UNFPA Strategic Plan for 2026-2029 articulates the organization’s response to a complex global environment, providing a roadmap for resilience and renewal. It is designed to accelerate the implementation of the Programme of Action of the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) and the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. This mandate is pursued through a focus on four interconnected outcomes: ending the unmet need for family planning; ending preventable maternal deaths; ending gender-based violence and harmful practices; and adapting to demographic change through evidence and rights-based policies. In a world where fundamental human rights are at risk, we need principled and ethical staff who embody these international norms and standards and will defend them courageously and with full conviction. UNFPA is seeking candidates who transform, inspire, and deliver high-impact sustained results, ensuring effective external relations, communications, partnership-building and resource mobilization in a rapidly changing development and funding landscape. We need staff who are transparent, exceptional in how they manage the resources entrusted to them, and who commit to delivering excellence in programme results Consultancy Background Information The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) is the lead UN agency for delivering a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every childbirth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. The architecture of the UNFPA Strategic Plan, 2026-2029 is designed to build on previous achievements while responding to emerging global challenges with greater agility, integration and accountability. The Strategic Plan is structured around four key outcomes, with the first three replicating the three transformative results from the Strategic Plan, 2022-2025: (a) ending the unmet need for family planning; (b) ending preventable maternal deaths; and (c) ending GBV and harmful practices; it also introduces a new fourth outcome (d) focused on demographic change and population dynamics. This fourth outcome recognizes the critical role of population dynamics in all their complexity in shaping sustainable development and building climate resilience. It prioritizes the identification of rights-based policy options for countries to manage demographic change effectively. UNFPA work under this outcome, also reaffirms that population policy must not only anticipate and support countries through demographic shifts but also protect and expand individuals’ rights and choices. The UNFPA's Strategic Plan (2026-2029) serves as a roadmap for resilience and renewal, aimed at advancing sexual and reproductive health and rights, accelerating implementation of the ICPD Programme of Action, and ensuring that individual rights and choices remain at the Centre of sustainable development. A key priority under the new Strategic Plan is outcome 4, which focuses on helping countries adapt to demographic change in ways that strengthen societal resilience while upholding human rights, gender equality, and individual choice. Through this outcome, UNFPA supports the government using population data, demographic analysis, and foresight to develop evidence-based and people-centered policies related to adolescents and youth, human capital, demographic resilience, SRHR, GBV and other harmful practices while ensuring that no one is left behind. As the Kenya 10th Country Programme (CP) ends in June 2027, the UNFPA Kenya Country Office is embarking on the design and formulation of its 11th Country Programme Document (CPD) (2027-2032). This new programme cycle must seamlessly align with Kenya’s national priorities in the next Medium-Term Plan of the Kenya Vision 2030, the next cycle of the United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework (UNSDCF), and the corporate UNFPA Strategic Plan (2026-2029).

Job Purpose

To ensure the 11th CPD is forward-looking, evidence-driven, and agile enough to navigate emerging socio-economic, technological and environmental shifts, the UNFPA KCO is seeking candidates who are transformative, embraces Artificial Intelligence and have futuristic modelling mindset to join the country team as Strategic Foresight and Programme Planning Analyst consultant in developing the country programme. The Consultant will provide day-to-day technical, programmatic support for the implementation of UNFPA activities in population and development specifically in development of CPD, UNCA and 10 th CPE, in close coordination with the Programme team at the Country Office. th Consultancy scope of work: Under the overall guidance of the UNFPA Deputy Representative and direct supervision of the Population Data Specialist, the consultant will perform the following comprehensive tasks: - Conduct collection, consolidation and uploading signals into the Signal Scanner platform and conduct continuous review updating and facilitate validation of signals in the Signal Scanner platform. - Support multi-dimensional strategic foresight analysis to identify emerging megatrends, uncertainties, and disruptive signals/drivers (e.g., climate shocks, digital transformations, technology-facilitated GBV, demographic shifts) impacting adolescents, youth, SRHR, and harmful practices in Kenya. - Support development of scenario-building profiles outlining the future paths regarding SRHR outcomes, youth development, and rates of GBV/FGM across different Kenyan counties over the next 15 years. - Extract, clean, and synthesize secondary quantitative and qualitative data from diverse sources (e.g., Kenya Demographic and Health Survey, census data, DHIS2, national administrative data, and academic literature) to feed directly into the UN Country Analysis (CA) and the Future Trends Analysis. - Conduct a meta-analysis and synthesis of the Country Programme Evaluations, mid-term reviews, thematic evaluations, and relevant UN joint programme assessments and distill specific successes, systemic bottlenecks, and operational lessons learned from past interventions to inform the strategic shifts and Theory of Change of the 11th CPD. - support logistical tracking for a series of CPD development workshops (including internal team retreats, co-creation sessions with partners and stakeholders tracking participation of key organizations such as youth-led and women led organizations, government line ministries, civil society, and development partners. - Identify and analyze traditional and non-traditional partners (including the private sector and tech innovators) to maximize contribution in foresight analysis and CPD development. - Support facilitation of strategic consultation meetings aimed at building consensus on geographic targeting, priority interventions, and the overall alignment with national priorities. - Map proposed UNFPA outcomes and outputs directly against the strategic pillars and indicators of the CA and the next UNSDCF to avoid duplication and maximize UNFPA contribution to joint UN action. - Support in drafting high-quality technical position papers, brief notes, and initial narrative components of the 11th CPD and CA based on inputs gathered from workshops and foresight exercises, adhering strictly to UNFPA corporate formatting guidelines. Consultancy Deliverables The consultant will deliver the following products during the consultancy period: - Updated Signal Scanner platform: At least 150 signals are collected, validated and uploaded in the Signal Scanner platform. - Meta-Evaluation & Synthesis Paper. | Consolidated review of the programme evaluations on lessons learned and structural recommendations for the 11 th CPD. - Workshop Package & Consultation Reports. Comprehensive summary reports for all stakeholder co-creation workshops held for 11 th CPD development. - Foresight & Country Analysis Report: A synthesized analytical report featuring data-mining outcomes, horizon scanning and demographic profiling. - Technical inputs to the 11th CPD. Thematic strategy notes from the future trend analysis aligned to the UNSDCF and UNCA. - Documentation of the GoK/UNFPA 11th CPD formulation process Updated Signal Scanner platform: At least 150 signals are collected, validated and uploaded in the Signal Scanner platform. Working and Payment schedule This consultancy is limited to four (4) months between September and December 2026. The consultant will have a work plan for the entire period with monthly milestones based on the scope and expected deliverables. The payment will be on a monthly basis after completion of monthly milestones as agreed in the work plan and the deliverables. Monitoring and progress control, including reporting requirements, periodicity format and deadline: - The consultant will work under overall guidance of the UNFPA Representative/Deputy Representative and direct supervision of the Population Data Specialist. - The Population Data Specialist will hold regular meetings with the consultants to review progress on the work being done. - The consultant will prepare a monthly report detailing the deliverables for the month as expected in the work plan. - Deliverables will be assessed for quality and to the extent they fulfill the requirements of the TOR Place where services are to be delivered: - The consultancy will take place in Nairobi, Kenya. - The consultancy will be a hybrid setup. A desk space within the UNFPA Kenya Country Office will be provided for critical office work, meetings and workshop execution. - The consultant is expected to utilize their computer, internet, telephone and other equipment, as needed, to undertake this assignment. - Travel is not expected, however, should the need arise, any related costs will be funded by UNFPA.

Responsibilities

Information not available.

Work Experience

- Minimum 2 years of experience in programme planning and strategic foresight analysis. - Demonstrate experience in applying Foresight methodologies, thematic research, data mining, data analysis, and programme monitoring and evaluation. - Thematic knowledge of the national context and UN landscape in Kenya regarding Population and development, SRHR, Adolescents and Youth development, GBV, and FGM elimination programming. - Prior experience in thematic areas relevant to the UNFPA mandate, including population and development, SRHR, GBV, FGM, HIV/AIDS, social inclusion, and intergenerational exchange is considered an asset - Proven experience in working in partnership with government institutions, development partners, the academic community, and civil society organizations (CSOs). - Strong analytical, interpersonal, and organizational skills, with the ability to manage multiple tasks, meet tight deadlines, and work effectively under pressure.

Skills

- Exemplifying integrity, - Demonstrating commitment to UNFPA and the UN system, - Embracing cultural diversity, - Embracing change - Achieving results, - Being accountable, - Developing and applying professional expertise/business acumen, - Thinking analytically and strategically, - Working in teams/managing ourselves and our relationships,

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