Consultancy on Exchange Rate Pass-Through & Monetary Policy Reforms: A DSGE Analysis of Two Arab Countries (Technical Paper)

Organizational Context

The Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), part of the UN Secretariat, seeks a consultant to analyze exchange rate pass-through and monetary policy reforms in two Arab countries. This role will contribute to understanding macroeconomic stability challenges, particularly concerning inflation and exchange rate volatility within diverse regional economic structures.

Job Purpose

The purpose of this consultancy is to conduct a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) analysis of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to inflation in two selected Arab countries. The role will assess how exchange rate fluctuations transmit to import prices, inflation, and output, considering varying pricing behaviors and monetary policy frameworks. The findings will provide actionable policy insights for central banks and economic authorities in the Arab region, supporting evidence-based decisions on exchange rate management, inflation control, and policy sequencing, especially in the context of monetary policy reforms.

Responsibilities

The consultant will develop a detailed outline and draft a technical paper on Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Policy reforms in two selected Arab countries using a DSGE framework. This involves adapting DSGE models for an oil-exporting economy and a non-oil, net-importing economy, incorporating factors like imperfect credibility, fiscal dominance, and exchange rate pass-through. The consultant will calibrate the model with country-specific data, analyze short- and medium-run ERPT, and conduct policy experiments comparing different monetary policy regimes. Deliverables include the final technical paper (8,000 words), DSGE model codes, database, and results in Excel format.

Work Experience

A minimum of 15 years of progressively responsible experience in analyzing macroeconomic policy issues, particularly macroeconometric modeling and forecasting, is required. Familiarity with DSGE models is desirable. Knowledge of economic development issues in Arab countries is also desirable.

Skills

Macroeconomic policy analysis, Macroeconometric modeling, Forecasting, DSGE models, Exchange rate pass-through analysis, Monetary policy analysis, Economic development issues (Arab countries).

Explore related opportunities